Speaker:Inga Maslova, American University
Title: Wavelet Transform Boundary Conditions for Improved Forecasting Model

Abstract: Wavelet based techniques started gaining popularity in diverse areas of physical sciences during the last couple of decades. Often overlooked in this approach are the circularity assumptions of the wavelet transform. A novel wavelet-based technique designed to improve the long-term streamflow forecasts is introduced. A simulation study is performed to evaluate the effects of different wavelet boundary rules using synthetic and real streamflow data. A forecasting model that uses wavelet and machine learning techniques is built. The inputs of the model utilize only the past monthly streamflow records. They are decomposed into components formulated in terms of wavelet multiresolution analysis. It is shown that the model accuracy can be increased by using the wavelet boundary rule introduced in this study. This long-term streamflow modeling and forecasting methodology would enable better decision-making and managing water availability risk.

Time: Friday, September 14, 2012, 1:30-2:30 p.m.

Place: Planetary Hall (formerly S & T I), Room 242

Department of Mathematical Sciences
George Mason University
4400 University Drive, MS 3F2
Fairfax, VA 22030-4444
http://math.gmu.edu/
Tel. 703-993-1460, Fax. 703-993-1491